:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 1999 Jun 15 2112 UT
HIGHLIGHTS OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
07 - 13 JUNE 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY RANGED FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE WEEK.
LOW ACTIVITY PREVAILED THROUGH 11 JUNE WITH A FEW C-CLASS FLARES
EACH DAY FROM A VARIETY OF SMALL- TO MODERATE-SIZED REGIONS. SOME OF
THESE FLARES INCLUDED A C1/SF AT 09/0017UT WITH A TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP AND A C8 AT 11/1157UT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE
AND A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB. OTHER EVENTS OF
NOTE WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS AT
11/0039UT AND 11/0051UT, RESPECTIVELY, FOLLOWED BY A PROTON
ENHANCEMENT (SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW). ACTIVITY ROSE TO MODERATE
LEVELS ON 12 JUNE WITH AN M1/1N FLARE AT 12/1336UT FROM REGION 8583
(S13, L=097, CLASS/AREA DSO/150 ON 12 JUNE) ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TYPE II SWEEP. ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF
THE PERIOD.

REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE ADVANCED
COMPOSITION EXPLORER (ACE) SPACECRAFT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A
CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM WAS EVIDENT DURING 08 - 09 JUNE WITH
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS (MAXIMUM READINGS AROUND 700 KM/SEC), INCREASED
PROTON TEMPERATURES, INCREASED IMF BZ VARIABILITY WITH SOUTHERLY
DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 12 NT (GSM), AND A SHIFT TO A TOWARD (NEGATIVE
POLARITY) SOLAR SECTOR. A SMALL, NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE
APPEARED TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED WIND STREAM.

A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDE WAS IN PROGRESS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND DECLINED
TO BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 08 JUNE. AN ENHANCEMENT AT GREATER THAN 10
MEV AND GREATER THAN 100 MEV BEGAN EARLY ON 11 JUNE FOLLOWING THE
TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ENHANCEMENT RETURNED TO
BACKGROUND LEVELS LATER THAT DAY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS
AT NORMAL LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS DISTURBED DURING 08 - 09 JUNE WITH
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS AT ALL LATITUDES AND BRIEF MINOR STORM
INTERVALS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS LIKELY DUE TO
CORONAL HOLE INFLUENCES.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
16 JUNE - 12 JULY 1999

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS.
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING
THE PERIOD.

NO SIGNIFICANT PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT
GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT  NORMAL LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED,
BARRING ANY EARTH-DIRECTED CME OCCURRENCES.


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