FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 072
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 13 MAR 1989
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5395 (N34W16)
PRODUCED AN M6/2N AT 12/2103Z AND AN X1/3N AT 13/0137Z.
ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE CENTIMETER BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THESE
FLARES. REGION 5395 ALSO PRODUCED CLASS M1 FLARES AT
12/2338Z, 13/0137Z, 13/0631Z, 13/1316Z, AND 13/1820Z.  THIS
REGION APPEARS TO BE STABILIZING AT A LARGE 3000 MILLIONTHS
AREA GROUP. PROPER MOTION AND SPOT ROTATION APPEAR TO BE
OCCURRING IN THIS REGION, MAINTAINING A HIGH LEVEL OF FLARE
PRODUCTION IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT GROWTH. SMALL REGION
5405 (N15W37) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
HIGH. REGION 5395 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 1-2 MAJOR EVENTS
PER DAY FOR THE DURATION OF ITS DISK TRANSIT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT SEVERE STORM LEVELS. A 79
NANOTESLA SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 13/0128Z FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 22 NANOTESLA AT 13/0747Z. K INDICES
OF 6 OR GREATER FOLLOWED THE FIRST IMPULSE. AT MIDDAY, K INDICES
OF 8 AND 9 WERE PREDOMINANT. THE 10 MEV PROTON EVENT CONTINUED,
REACHING A PEAK FLUX OF 5300 PFU (APPROXIMATE) AT 13/0745Z.
BY 13/1500Z THE PARTICLE FLUX DECREASED TO BELOW 100 PFU. THE
POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT CONTINUED WITH A PEAK ABSORPTION OF
6 DB OBSERVED NEAR 13/0800Z. A FORBUSH DECREASE OF
APPROXIMATELY 13 PERCENT WAS IN PROGRESS AT 13/2100Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS FOR 14 MAR. IN THE
ABSENCE OF FURTHER GEOEFFECTIVE FLARE ACTIVITY, ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR 15-16 MAR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
CLASS M    99/99/99
CLASS X    80/80/80
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAR  256
PREDICTED   14 MAR-16 MAR  255/253/250
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAR  227
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 MAR  016/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR  175/175
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR  040/065-025/030-019/020