FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 071
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 12 MAR 1989
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5395 (N34W04)
CONTINUED MAJOR FLARE PRODUCTION. THE LARGEST REACHED M7/2B
LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP.
THE REGION RETAINED MOST OF ITS IMPRESSIVE CHARACTERISTICS, BUT
ALSO BEGAN SHOWING EARLY SIGNS OF DECAY. OTHER FLARES DURING
THE PERIOD FROM REGION 5395 CONTAINED SIGNIFICANT RADIO BURSTS
AND SWEEPS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGH. REGION 5395 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF A PROTON PRODUCING
FLARE, AS WELL AS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED MAJOR FLARE
PRODUCTION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE X15 FLARE OF
6 MAR 89. THE 10 MEV PROTON EVENT CONTINUED IN PROGRESS
WITH A PEAK OF 440 PFU VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WAS
PROBABLY THE CONTRIBUTORY ACCUMULATION OF THE X4/3B FLARE
OF 10 MAR 89 ENHANCING THE DECAYING 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT
INITIALLY STARTED 08/1735Z. THE PCA EVENT ALSO CONTINUED IN
PROGRESS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT ALSO PEAKED OUT WITH
A 4.8 DB LEVEL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE X4/3B FLARE
OF 10 MAR IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DISTURBANCE THE FIRST AND
SECOND DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
CLASS M    99/99/99
CLASS X    80/80/80
PROTON     50/50/50
PCAF       IN PROGRESS
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAR  249
PREDICTED   13 MAR-15 MAR  245/234/223
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAR  226
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  020/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  025/030-025/030-019/025